ECONOMY
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Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation…
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Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”: “The ball is in China’s court. China…
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The Decline of Manufacturing
Look at the incredible decline of manufacturing across a wide variety of industries in the figure below. Nearly 7.5 million…
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Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High
Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises. And here’s…
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Manufacturing share vs. GDP
Via Basil Halperin. This is not a question of confusing causation and correlation, if anything it is the protectionists who…
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Why Do Domestic Prices Rise With Tarriffs?
Many people think they understand why domestic prices rise with tariffs–domestic producers take advantage of reduced competition to jack up…
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2 April 2025: An Event Study
Odds of a recession in 2025: Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT. Polymarket confirms: Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025,…
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Sell Floyd Bennett Field!
I’ve been shouting Sell! for many years. Perhaps now is the chance to do it. Here’s a recap: The Federal…
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The Madmen and the AIs
In Collaborating with AI Agents: Field Experiments on Teamwork, Productivity, and Performance Harang Ju and Sinan Aral (both at MIT)…
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Conference Board: “US Consumer Confidence tumbled again in March”
Conference Board confidence index at 92.9 vs. 94.2 consensus. Here’s confidence vs. U.Mich sentiment (all standardized). Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic…
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