It may be simplistic to say that the turnover margin will be the key for the Washington Commanders to win the NFC Championship against the Philadelphia Eagles and move on to the Super Bowl, but five turnovers were a major reason that Washington held a typically powerful Detroit Lions offense to 31 points and won last Saturday’s NFC divisional playoff game, 45-31.
The basic tenets that applied to preparing for the Lions last week apply to the Eagles for Sunday. The Commanders will need a few breaks, meaning turnovers by the Eagles, to overcome the six-point favorites for the game. Thinking of the number six, both the Eagles and Commanders have six takeaways and zero turnovers for the playoffs. That may be why both teams are playing for the NFC Championship.
Looking at last Sunday’s Baltimore Ravens game against the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens had two key fumbles. In the second quarter as the Ravens were driving, Bills linebacker Von Miller returned Lamar Jackson’s fumble 39 yards at the Buffalo 37-yard line to the Baltimore 24-yard line, leading to a Buffalo Bills touchdown and a 14-7 lead.
In the fourth quarter with the Ravens down 24-19, again driving down field, Jackson threw a completion down the middle to Mark Andrews for 16 yards but Andrews fumbled trying for more yards. Buffalo recovered and drove 11 plays for 52 yards taking 5:12 off the clock. Buffalo kicked the field goal and moved ahead 27-19.
It took arguably the MVP Jackson’s heroics to move the ball downfield for the touchdown but the dropped two-point conversion turned into a heartbreaking defeat 27-25. But turnovers and dropped passes in playoff games turn the thrill of victory into the agony of defeat.
Not surprisingly, every playoff team that has won this year had fewer turnovers than their opponent, making turnovers perhaps the key aspect to Sunday’s game.
The Commanders defense will again need at least two or three turnovers if not more on Sunday without giving the ball away and they’ll need to make the plays when they have the opportunities. In other words, they’ll need to leave it on the field as they did in Detroit. It’s a tall order for the Commanders to rise to the occasion once again.
Ironically, the last time these two teams met the Commanders had five turnovers to two turnovers for the Eagles but they also played most of the game with quarterback Kenny Pickett rather than Jalen Hurts after Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter. Pickett didn’t lose the game but he certainly didn’t win the game and Hurts very well might have won it. Also, a wide open DaVonta Smith dropped a pass that would have won the game for the Eagles but instead gave the Commanders a chance for the win.
The Commanders had six penalties for 93 yards compared to 10 penalties for the Eagles for 91 yards. Just to note, Shawn Hochuli will officiate the game but with a different set of referees. Whether or not an egregious mistake is made on a penalty called to determine the game is always an intangible in the NFL.
Still, the old phrase “defense wins championships” is still true today and for two NFC East divisional opponents that know each other well, the team with the most turnovers and mistakes will likely give up the NFC Championship in a heartbreaking defeat to the team that will be going to next month’s Super Bowl in New Orleans.
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